Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
